TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026 before returning to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027 via 25 bp hikes in January and March. They see higher Oil prices from US–Iran tensions as an inflation shock but argue well-anchored expectations and muted core inflation allow the Bank to look through stronger headline Consumer Price Index (CPI).
BoC seen on extended hold then hiking
“We look for the Bank of Canada to stay on hold at 2.25% through 2026 before a return to neutral (2.75%) next year, with 25bp hikes in January and March. Higher oil prices resulting from US strikes on Iranian and subsequent threats to global crude supply have introduced a material shock for inflation, but we believe the Bank can remain patient as it waits for more clarity on the geopolitical outlook and spillovers to domestic CPI. We look for inflation to peak ~3% in Q2, which is above BoC projections in the April MPR, but the combination of well anchored expectations, lower inflation breadth, and muted core inflation momentum leave the Bank well positioned to look through stronger headline CPI.”
“Markets will look to the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations for further insight around the April policy decision and the two-sided risks cited in the Bank’s guidance. We look for the minutes to delve further into the Bank’s assessment of geopolitical risks and the impact of higher crude oil prices for the Canadian economy. The minutes should also expand on any diverging views around the Bank’s guidance and the potential for “consecutive increases” to the policy rate.”
“Deputy Governor Alexopoulos will speak about AI and productivity at the Ottawa Economics Association on May 13th; Alexopoulos’ speech will be released at 11:05ET, with a moderated Q&A scheduled to follow shortly afterwards. The Bank will also publish its Summary of Deliberations on May 13th at 1:30pm, offering a closer look into the Bank’s decision from April 29th. Looking further ahead, Deputy Governor Vincent will give a speech in Montreal on May 26th, ahead of the Financial System Review on May 28th.”
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind BoC: Patience on hikes despite oil shock – TD Securities can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: BoC: Patience on hikes despite oil shock – TD Securities may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
