The war market is unwinding as the hopes for the Strait of Hormuz opening and hopes for denuclearization propelling the moves. The price of oil is down -17%. The 10 year yield is down -10.7 basis points to 4.235%, the US stock indices are sharply higher with Dow up 1310 points , the Nasdaq is up 862 points and the S&P is up 190 points. The USD is lower.
IN the video above, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. The bias in the major pair has shifted to the upside in the EURUSD and the GBPUSD and more to the downside in the USDJPY, but we have to also remember, the USD has been higher in 2026, so the declines are still retracing and moving toward key longer term targets.
I outline those targets as well as redefine close risk for traders looking to benefit from more dollar selling. So watch the video and better understand the roadmap going forward for the major currency pairs.
As a review of the overnight headline news, of course President Trump struck an upbeat and forward-looking tone, declaring it could be “a big day for world peace,” with Iran signaling willingness to move ahead and the U.S. assisting in stabilizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed to the potential for significant economic activity and reconstruction, saying the U.S. would help supply materials and support rebuilding efforts, framing it as a possible “Golden Age” moment for the Middle East. At the same time, he outlined a firmer policy framework, stating the U.S. will work closely with Iran following what he described as a “productive regime change,” with a strict requirement of no uranium enrichment. He added that nuclear capabilities would be dismantled and closely monitored, while also indicating that tariff and sanctions relief are on the table, with many elements of a broader agreement already in place. Overall, Trump’s message combined optimism on peace and economic upside with clear red lines on nuclear policy and enforcement.
Vice President Vance described the situation as showing constructive progress but still fragile, noting that Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that a pause in hostilities forms the basis of a tentative truce. He said some factions within Iran are engaging positively, but others are not, underscoring uncertainty around follow-through. Vance added that President Trump is impatient to secure a deal, stressing the importance of good-faith negotiations, while warning that failure by Iran to cooperate could lead to consequences, reinforcing a cautious but firm U.S. stance.
There have been reports of Iranian missile attacks on Kuwait and UAE in response to violations of the ceasefire. Israel is also bombing in southern Lebanon. Of course Israel may be a wild card in the process.
IN other news, the RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% as expected, signaling a cautious stance as near-term inflation is projected to rise while economic growth is expected to weaken. The Committee emphasized its commitment to returning inflation to the 2% midpoint over the medium term, noting that this will require contained core inflation, moderate wage growth, and stable inflation expectations. While the current hold balances inflation risks against the risk of unnecessarily slowing the economy, policymakers made clear they are prepared to act decisively with rate hikes if inflation pressures broaden or expectations become unanchored. The Minutes highlighted a split in views, with some members favoring earlier tightening, while others stressed downside risks to growth and the need for more data. Overall, the outlook reflects rising short-term inflation pressures—driven in part by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks—alongside a softer growth backdrop, leaving the policy path data-dependent but tilted toward tightening if inflation persists.
RBNZ Governor Breman said the decision to hold rates was unanimous and, while rate hikes were discussed, policymakers were not close to tightening and there was no strong support for a hike at this meeting. He noted that falling oil prices could push inflation forecasts higher, while tighter financial conditions are expected to modestly weigh on growth. Looking ahead, he kept optionality open, indicating that future rate hikes could come at every meeting or every second meeting, depending on how the data evolves, reinforcing a flexible, data-dependent policy path.
The NZDUSD is sharply higher mostly in reaction to the ceasefire in Iran. The move to the upside has taken the NZDUSD above the 38.2% of the move down from the 2026 high at 0.5835, but fell short of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.58503. The price is back below the 38.2% after the failed run to the upside. The price does not need to get and stay above those levels to increase the bullish bias.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The Conflict unwind is on. Oil lower, Yields lower. Stocks higher and the USD lower can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The Conflict unwind is on. Oil lower, Yields lower. Stocks higher and the USD lower may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
