Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to a weekly high during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal rebounds after the United States (US) and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.
Washington and Tehran said on Sunday that they have reached an agreement that will take effect on Friday. US President Donald Trump stated that the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after the agreement is signed.
Trump added that the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately assure that the Strait of Hormuz is “permanently toll free,” per the New York Times. The United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany and Italy said that the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war. Hopes of a peace framework for a deal to end the US-Iran war provide some support to the yellow metal.
Meanwhile, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said on Sunday that the 60-day negotiations between the US and Iran will hinge on the US meeting three commitments. Those commitments include “lifting and ending the naval blockade,” “ending the state of war and military operations,” and “releasing Iran’s frozen funds.”
Any signs of renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to a rise in crude oil prices, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations of interest rates staying higher for longer. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Markets have priced in nearly a 64% probability of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold remains capped below the key 100-day SMA in daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains in a corrective phase, holding well below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and also beneath the Bollinger middle band, which together suggest rallies are still capped within a broader downbeat structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued upside momentum and reinforcing the view that bounces are more likely to be sold into while price trades under these overhead levels.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band near $4,415, followed by the upper Bollinger band around $4,685, with the 100-day SMA higher up near $4,762 acting as a more strategic barrier if a stronger rebound unfolds.
On the downside, the first notable support is seen at the lower Bollinger band around $4,142, where a break would open the door to a deeper retracement toward prior lows, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside while price trades beneath the clustered daily resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Gold gains momentum as US, Iran agree on peace deal to end the Conflict can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
- How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
- Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
- ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Gold gains momentum as US, Iran agree on peace deal to end the Conflict may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
