ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87.
Summary:
- ANZ forecasts Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and in the range of $80 to $85 per barrel in 2027, per ANZ research
- ANZ sees the global oil market running a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, an assumption that factors in rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year, per ANZ
- ANZ said oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for most of 2027 if the recovery in the Persian Gulf region is delayed until the end of that year, per ANZ research
- ANZ said a US-Iran peace deal would be the primary downside scenario for oil prices, potentially pushing Brent to around $83 to $87 per barrel, per ANZ research
ANZ has issued one of the more detailed oil price frameworks to emerge from the banking sector since the Hormuz closure began, forecasting Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and a gradual retreat to $80 to $85 in 2027, while flagging a scenario in which prices remain above $100 for most of next year if the Persian Gulf recovery is pushed out to the end of 2027.
The bank’s base case for 2026 assumes the global oil market runs a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day, a figure that already incorporates rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year. That supply increase reflects the expected gradual normalisation of production and export capacity as the conflict stabilises, while the demand softening in Q4 captures the economic drag that elevated energy prices are increasingly inflicting on major consuming economies. Even with those assumptions in place, the market remains firmly in deficit for the full year, underpinning the above-$90 price call.
The 2027 outlook introduces a wider range of outcomes tied directly to the pace of Persian Gulf infrastructure recovery. ANZ’s base case lands in the $80 to $85 range, implying a meaningful price decline from 2026 levels as supply constraints ease and the market moves closer to balance. However, the bank flags that if the recovery in the region is delayed until the very end of 2027, prices could hold above $100 for most of that year, a scenario that would extend the inflationary pressure currently rippling through central bank policy frameworks from Wellington to Washington.
The downside scenario ANZ identifies is a US-Iran peace deal, which the bank estimates could pull Brent down to the $83 to $87 range. That floor sits well below current levels and illustrates the scale of the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices. The gap between the peace deal scenario and the delayed recovery scenario, potentially $15 to $20 per barrel or more, represents the range of outcomes the market is being asked to price simultaneously, with diplomatic talks, military posture and infrastructure capacity all feeding into the calculus.
ANZ’s framework arrives as a growing number of central banks, from the Bank of Korea to the Federal Reserve, are revising their rate outlooks in response to the inflationary consequences of sustained high oil prices. With Brent anchored above $90 as the base case through the end of this year, the pressure on those institutions to tighten further rather than ease is unlikely to abate in the near term.
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ANZ’s forecasts sit at the hawkish end of the current street consensus and reinforce the view that the oil market’s supply deficit is structural rather than transitory for as long as the Persian Gulf recovery is delayed. The 1.6 mb/d deficit assumption for 2026 is particularly significant because it is predicated on rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter, meaning any slippage in either of those assumptions pushes the deficit wider and prices higher.
The $100-plus scenario for most of 2027 is not ANZ’s base case but the conditions that would trigger it, a Persian Gulf recovery pushed to end-2027, are plausible given the infrastructure damage already sustained.
ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87. At the other end of the range, the $83 to $87 peace deal scenario gives traders a clear downside anchor, though the gap between that level and current prices reflects just how much geopolitical risk premium the market is currently carrying.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind ANZ sees Brent above $90 for 2026 with risk of $100-plus into 2027 can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: ANZ sees Brent above $90 for 2026 with risk of $100-plus into 2027 may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
