The video above takes a detailed look of the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.
On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but the decision revealed a notable divide beneath the surface. There were four dissenters in what was likely Powell’s final meeting as Chair.
- Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari pushed back on the easing bias, citing ongoing inflation risks.
- Miran, the most recent Trump nominee, dissented in favor of a rate cut, reinforcing his more dovish stance.
The takeaway is clear: the Fed is increasingly split, with the debate shifting toward what comes next—cuts versus staying restrictive longer.
Yesterday’s dominant story, however, came from JPY price action.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted a rate check in USDJPY, a classic pre-intervention warning shot. It’s a signal to the market that authorities are watching closely and are prepared to act if needed—without actually deploying reserves. The move marked a shift in how traders must now price in intervention risk, especially with USDJPY pushing toward the 160.00 level, which appears to be a trigger zone.
The backdrop matters. Yen weakness has become politically sensitive ahead of elections, as it feeds directly into higher import and food prices, particularly with Japan heavily reliant on energy imports. There was also speculation that U.S. officials may be tolerant of yen strength, adding another layer of complexity.
The rate check sparked a sharp move lower in USDJPY, as traders trimmed short yen positions amid uncertainty over whether direct intervention would follow.
USDJPY technicals
Technically, the pair has been active:
- The price retested the 100-day moving average near 157.26 (high reached 157.32)
- Sellers leaned against that level, pushing the price lower
- The move extended toward 155.50, the 61.8% retracement of the February rally
Since then, the pair has bounced and is now trading around the 50% midpoint near 156.50, which is acting as a key barometer.
Levels to watch:
- Resistance: 157.26 (100-day MA)
- Support: 155.50 (61.8% retracement)
- Pivot: 156.50 (50% midpoint)
EURUSD technicals
The EURUSD moved higher yesterday, helped by USD selling and relatively firmer ECB tone.
- The pair initially broke above the 100-day and 100-hour MAs near 1.1708
- Resistance at the 200-hour MA capped gains (a level that stalled rallies on April 22 and 27)
- However, after a pullback, buyers stepped back in and pushed the price above the 200-hour MA, keeping the bullish bias intact
Today:
- A dip toward 1.1713 found support
- Price has since extended to new weekly highs above 1.1754
Upside targets:
- 1.1790 (April swing highs)
- 1.1823–1.1836 (next key resistance zone)
- Above that, the 1.1845 high
GBPUSD technicals
GBPUSD followed a similar path but with stronger momentum.
- The pair based near the 100-day MA at 1.3465
- Broke above a key swing area between 1.3575–1.3598, increasing the bullish bias
Today:
- A dip back into that zone held support (low 1.3587)
- Buyers stepped in, pushing the pair to new highs at 1.3643, the highest level since February 17
Levels to watch:
- Support: 1.3575–1.3598 (prior resistance turned support)
- Next targets: 1.3725–1.3772
- Further upside: toward the yearly high near 1.3868
Bottom line
- The Fed is divided, with policy uncertainty rising
- JPY intervention risk is now a major driver in FX
- Technical levels are dictating the post-news moves
- USD weakness stalled as key levels held, keeping two-way risk firmly in play
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is little changed to start the day. The USDJPY remains volatile but in a range can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is little changed to start the day. The USDJPY remains volatile but in a range may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
