The USD is lower vs the major currencies to start the North American session and the new trading week. The declines come after sharp gains in the dollar on Friday as yields moved higher, and stocks moved sharply lower with the NASDAQ index losing over 1100 points on geopolitical concerns and a stronger than expected US jobs report. Fed funds futures are now leaning toward tightening – not easing – in 2026. The strong labor market and rising energy prices have pushed the market to price a meaningful probability of at least one rate hike this year, while expectations for rate cuts have largely disappeared.
Having said that, the tone has improved this morning. Pres. Trump has posted on Truth Social:
Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly
It is curious that the word “peace” is in quotations (as if not not believe it), but the markets have jumped on the good story. Subsequently Iran announced end of military operations against Israel, BUT warned of harsher attacks if Israel resumes attacks on Lebanon. Over the weekend, Israel launched missiles toward Lebanon despite Pres. Trumps pleas to not do it. Now it seems there is a truce.
The USD has moved lower with the USD down by 0.19% versus the EUR, by -0.22% versus the JPY and -0.20% versus the GBP. The declines versus the NZD (-0.59%) and the AUD (-0.41%) are larger as some of the risk-off trades from Friday are unwound. In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective and outline the key technical levels in play including the bias, the risk levels, and targets.
Crude oil is trading lower from higher levels with the current price at $91.57. That is still about $1.00 up on the day, but well off the highs of $95.47. The low price is at $91.52 not far from the current levels.
Looking at the US stock indices in premarket trading:
- Dow industrial average is up 146 points, after falling 695 points on Friday
- S&P index is up 56 points after falling -200.59 points.
- NASDAQ index is up 378 points after tumbling -1121.53 points on Friday
Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed but modestly lower in the short end after Friday’s move higher:
- 2 year 4.151% -1.1 basis points
- 5 year 4.274%, -0.6 basis points
- 10 year 4.540%, +0.4 basis points
- 30 year 5.006%, +0.8 basis points
In other markets:
- Gold is up $5.40 or 0.12% at $4332
- Silver is up #0.61 or 0.91% at $68.50
UPDATED (10 minutes later).
- Israel sources says “Our operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon are ongoing”
- There are also reports of airstrikes targeting Tyre, Lebanon
- Netanyahu and Trump spoke with Netanyahu saying that Pres. Trump and he were “consensual” in positions.
There is no believing what is said. Despite the news headlines. the US stock market is remaining positive with the NASDAQ index now up 400 points in premarket futures trading.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: USD mostly lower to start the new trading week as geopolitics continue to dominate may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
