OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the organisation has seen little sign of demand destruction and is holding its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day.
Summary:
- OPEC is maintaining its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.2 million barrels per day, with no revision signalled
- Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said no signs of demand destruction have been registered despite widespread commentary suggesting otherwise
- He cited the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure as examples of “one-off events” that should not deter long-term investment in the oil sector
- Al Ghais called for continued upstream investment to meet future demand requirements, warning that under-investment ahead of time leaves the market exposed
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has pushed back firmly against growing market scepticism over oil demand, saying the organisation has yet to see any evidence of a meaningful slowdown and is holding its forecast for consumption growth at 1.2 million barrels per day for 2025.
Speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Al Ghais acknowledged the volume of commentary questioning oil’s demand trajectory but said the data does not support it. The Strait of Hormuz closure and the broader Middle East conflict, he argued, are one-off disruptions that should be kept in perspective rather than treated as structural signals for the sector.
Al Ghais is not alone in holding that view. Despite the unusual convergence of geopolitical pressures, elevated prices, and slowing growth in key consuming regions, several major forecasting bodies have been reluctant to revise demand estimates sharply lower. The International Energy Agency has maintained positive, if more modest, growth projections for 2025, and the US Energy Information Administration has similarly resisted cutting its consumption outlook despite acknowledging downside risks. The common thread across forecasters is that actual demand data, rather than macro conditions alone, has not yet justified a significant downgrade.
That said, the consensus is not unanimous. Some analysts and banks have flagged softer refinery margins, lower industrial throughput in China, and weaker freight demand as early indicators that consumption growth is beginning to slow, even if headline figures have not yet caught up.
For OPEC, the stakes in maintaining a constructive demand view are significant. The group has been carefully managing output increases, with several members returning barrels to the market in recent months. A credible demand outlook is essential to that strategy holding together. If consumption data begins to diverge more sharply from OPEC’s projections, pressure on the group’s cohesion will grow.
Al Ghais used the St Petersburg platform to reinforce the investment case for oil, warning that the industry must commit capital well ahead of future demand cycles. The concern is one the secretary general has raised repeatedly: that premature pessimism about oil’s long-term role risks creating the conditions for a supply crunch even as near-term sentiment turns cautious.
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Al Ghais’s remarks offer a degree of support to oil prices at a time when geopolitical risk has been pulling in competing directions, with Hormuz closure fears pressuring supply while demand uncertainty weighs on the other side. However, OPEC’s demand optimism sits in tension with weaker economic signals out of China and Europe, and traders will continue to price the gap between official forecasts and real-time consumption data.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind ICYMI: OPEC says oil demand remains strong despite Hormuz, Mid East conflict Rising price can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: ICYMI: OPEC says oil demand remains strong despite Hormuz, Mid East conflict Rising price may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
