Contents
Key takeaways
- Global risk appetite surged on US–Iran peace hopes: Reports of a potential peace memorandum between the US and Iran drove a sharp rally in global equities and a steep decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns and boosting sentiment across risk assets.
- Tech and semiconductors powered record equity highs: The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and several Asian indices hit fresh record highs, led by strong momentum in semiconductor stocks after upbeat earnings and AI-related partnership developments involving Intel and AMD.
- USD weakened while gold and JPY gained: The US dollar fell broadly as geopolitical risk premiums eased, triggering a 3%+ surge in gold above $4,700 and renewed strength in the Japanese yen amid suspected intervention and bearish technical signals on USD/JPY.
- Chart of the day: USD/JPY has further potential downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 key short-term resistance. Next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05.
Top macro headlines
- US-Iran peace deal hopes: Oil prices slumped and global stocks surged following news that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum to end the conflict, with the US concluding offensive operations.
- US equities hit record highs: Bloomberg data highlights the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,259.22. The rally was heavily driven by the semiconductor sector, with Intel jumping 13% on Apple partnership reports and AMD soaring 16.5% after hours.
- Gold spikes past $4,700: Spot gold climbed over 3% to $4,703/oz, hitting a multi-week high as the prospect of peace dragged down the US Dollar and shifted safe-haven dynamics.
- Yen volatility persists: JPY rallied 1.8% to around 155.00 per USD on Wednesday, 8 May, Asian session on suspected “stealth intervention”.
- US ADP Employment beats expectations: Private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, surpassing the forecast of 99,000, signaling continued labor market tightness that complicates the Fed’s easing path.
Key macro themes
- Geopolitical de-escalation & energy Relief: The potential resolution of the Middle East conflict is rapidly pulling the extreme risk premium out of the energy markets. WTI crude falling back toward $100/bbl provides immediate relief to global inflation expectations.
- The AI semiconductor supercycle: The tech sector continues to decouple from broader macro anxieties. Exceptional earnings beats and strategic partnerships (like Intel/Apple) are reinforcing semiconductors as the primary growth engine for global equities.
- Dollar weakness and gold reallocation: The sudden drop in the US Dollar (spurred by peace hopes), has triggered an intraday massive capital rotation into gold, which surged around 3% as a preferred alternative asset.
Global markets impact (last 24 hours)
- Equities: The S&P 500 (+1.5% to 7,365), Nasdaq 100 (+2.1% to 28,599), and Russell 2000 (+1.5% to 2,886) closed at record highs.DJIA (+1.2% to 49,910) lagged. In Europe, the DAX surged 2.1% to 24,918.
- Fixed Income: The US 30-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% (to 4.98%) as investors locked in rates. The 10-year yield remains anchored at 4.4%.
- FX: The US Dollar weakened broadly on the US-Iran peace news. The AUD/USD climbed to 0.7238, closing in on a 4-year high on upbeat risk appetite.
- Commodities: WTI Crude slumped toward $90,50/bbl on the US-Iran developments. Spot Gold spiked 3.2% to $4,703/oz, its highest since late April.
Asia Pacific impact
- Stock markets: An overnight 4.5% jump in the US SOX semiconductor index sets up a positive feedback loop back into key Asian stock markets. Nikkei 225 (+5.4% to 62,720 to hit a fresh all-time high), KOSPI (+0.2% to propel towards a new record high of 7,400), Hang Seng Index (+1.3% to 26,564), China A50 (+0.2% to 15,850 to hit a 52-month high), and STI (+0.3% to 4,944) at this time of writing.
- Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed all regional peers following the rally seen in global stock markets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has managed to find a floor at around 157.30/157.55 per USD on fears of further intervention,
- Economic Outlook: The region is expected to benefit significantly from declining energy import costs. If the Middle East peace deal is implemented, it will provide a significant economic boost for major oil importers such as Japan and South Korea.
Top 2 events to watch today
- US Initial Jobless Claims – 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 205K, previous week: 189K) Impact: USD, US stock indices, Short-end US Treasuries
- Eurozone Retail Sales – 5.00 pm SGT: (consensus: -0.3% m/m, Feb: -0.2% m/m) Impact: EUR crosses, DAX
- Ongoing US-Iran Peace Memorandum Developments Impact: All asset classes
Chart of the day – USD/JPY further downside pressure below 157.30/157.55
Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView)
The USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration on Wednesday, 6 May 2026. In addition, in today’s opening Asian session (Thursday, 7 May 2026), its hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish momentum condition below the 50 level.
These observations suggest the minor downtrend phase of the USD/JPY remains intact. Watch the 157.30/157.55 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig 1).
However, a clearance and an hourly close above 157.55 negates the bearish tone for a rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 158.10 and 158.60 (the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).
