The USDCAD is breaking above its 100-day moving average at 1.3718, a key technical level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past month. Recall that on Tuesday the pair briefly moved above that moving average, only to quickly reverse lower. Yesterday, sellers once again leaned against the same level and stalled the advance. Today, however, buyers are making another push.
If the pair can now stay above the 100-day MA — along with the nearby 38.2% retracement at 1.37085 — it would strengthen the bullish bias and give buyers a more clearly defined risk level to lean against. Holding above that swing zone between 1.3708 and 1.37149 would represent an important technical victory given how effectively it has acted as a ceiling since April 16.
On the topside, the next interim target comes in at 1.37378, corresponding with the April 16 swing high. Above that, traders would turn their focus toward the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high at 1.3757.
For buyers, the goal now is clear: break above the ceiling and stay above it. For sellers, repeated failures to push the pair back below the breakout area could increase discomfort and potentially help fuel further upside momentum.
