US stock markets opened with strong optimism, but other asset classes are not as confident.
While equities are rising and catching up to the previous session’s futures rally, currency and commodity markets remain cautious about unresolved issues in the latest diplomatic talks.
The overall geopolitical outlook appears positive, as both sides have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days and work toward a longer-term peace process within 60 days.
Still, a final agreement is proving difficult. Reports show that Iranian negotiators remain stuck on key issues, especially the release of frozen funds and where Tehran’s enriched nuclear stockpiles will go.
Ongoing diplomatic tensions are causing a quick shift in commodities, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, especially Brent.
The continued geopolitical risks and concerns about inflation are giving strong support to the US Dollar, the subject of this morning’s analysis.
Current session’s FX performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 26, 2026.
Even though hopes for peace are pushing risk assets to new highs, the US Dollar remains strong, going against the broader trend.
We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to see how recent peace flows have already impacted the FX market and where to look next.
Dollar Index 4H Chart
Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView.
The US Dollar is currently consolidating between 99.00 and 99.50, a much higher range compared with late-April trading, when it was closer to 98.00.
Bulls are pushing price action above the 4H 50-period MA, pointing to a potential test of the upper bound of the range.
With RSI momentum also picking up, the setup looks more bullish for the US Dollar. Watch reactions at 99.50 to see whether momentum continues from there.
Levels of Interest for the Dollar Index:
Resistance Levels
- 99.40 to 99.50 resistance — range highs
- 99.68 — Initial war spike
- 100.00 to 100.50 — Main resistance zone
- 100.544 — War highs
Support Levels
- 99.00 intraday pivot — range lows
- 98.50 to 98.70 — War pivot, now support
- 97.40 to 97.60 — Triple-bottom support
- 96.40 to 96.80 — 2025 lows support
- Range lows at early-2022 consolidation, just below 96.00
GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels
GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView.
GBP/USD kept rallying above the pivot zone but stalled right at its 4H 200-period MA around 1.3500.
With price currently retracing back toward the pivot zone, the action is more mixed than fully bearish. Traders could wait for either a double top around the MA or a break below 1.3420, the 50-MA, to confirm lower action.
Any close above the 200-MA would add further bullish momentum.
Levels of Interest for GBP/USD:
Resistance Levels
- 4H 200-period MA around 1.3500
- 1.3600 — December resistance and range highs
- 1.36010 — Pre-FOMC highs
- 1.3700 — Resistance zone
- 2025 resistance around 1.3800
Support Levels
- 1.3400 to 1.3440 — Key pivot
- 1.3280 to 1.3300 — Pivotal support
- 1.3200 — War support
EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels
EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView.
EUR/USD is rejecting its 4H 50-period MA, with RSI momentum also turning bearish, pointing to more downside ahead.
After failing to break the mid-level of the longer-run bear channel, the lower bound at 1.1580 could soon be retested.
Any break and close above 1.1660 would void the bearish formation.
Levels to Place on Your EUR/USD Charts:
Resistance Levels
- 1.1635 to 1.1655 — Pivot
- 1.1700 to 1.1720 — March resistance
- Resistance zone around 1.1800, plus or minus 150 pips
- 1.1830 — June 2025 highs
Support Levels
- 1.1580 — Channel lower bound
- 1.1540 to 1.1580 — War support
- 1.1475 to 1.1500 — November support
- 1.1410 — War lows
Safe trades!
