The USD is mixed but little changed to start the new trading day. In the video above, I focus on the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective, highlighting the key levels that define the bias, risk, and potential targets for each pair, while explaining why those levels matter.
EURUSD is trading higher on the day, supported by stronger-than-expected core CPI data and expectations for a June rate hike. The pair is up roughly 0.16% and has moved back above both its 200-hour moving average at 1.1630 and 100-hour moving average at 1.1638. Staying above those levels keeps buyers in control, although they still have work to do. On the topside, a swing area between 1.1655 and 1.1667 stands as the next hurdle. A break above that zone would put the focus on the 200-day moving average and broken 38.2% retracement at 1.16806, followed by the 100-day moving average at 1.16969. Conversely, a move back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages would shift the bias back in favor of sellers, with yesterday’s low near 1.1600 as the next target. Below that, traders would look toward a support area defined by swing lows between 1.1576 and 1.1586.
GBPUSD is also higher by about 0.16% after finding support near the 50% retracement of the rally from the March low to the May high at 1.3408. Yesterday’s decline saw sellers lean against the 100-day moving average at 1.34753, pushing the pair below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and the 200-day moving average at 1.3420. However, the downside momentum stalled at the midpoint support level, allowing buyers to regain control. The pair has since moved back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3440 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.3448, and is now testing the 100-day moving average at 1.34753. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward last week’s high near 1.3518, the 61.8% retracement at 1.3522, and a swing high at 1.35317. On the downside, a move back below the 200- and 100-hour moving averages would be needed to tilt the bias back toward sellers, with the 200-day moving average at 1.3420 becoming the next downside target.
USDJPY continues to grind higher and has now entered an important resistance zone between 159.71 and 159.96, effectively the 160.00 area. Traders will remember that both in late March and late April the pair pushed above this region. In April, intervention concerns intensified and helped trigger a sharp decline of roughly 1,000 pips over the following several trading days before buyers eventually regained control. Technically, buyers remain firmly in charge as long as the price stays above the 100-hour moving average at 159.455 and the 200-hour moving average at 159.264. A move below those levels would be needed to weaken the bullish bias. Until then, the path of least resistance remains higher. If the pair can extend above 160.00, intervention concerns may grow, but from a technical perspective the next upside targets remain the swing highs at 160.44 and 160.717.
In other markets as the North American session kicks off:
- Crude oil is trading down $1.34 at $90.89.
- Gold is trading up $43 or $4527.
- Silver is trading up $1.46 at $76.28.
US stocks are lower with the
- Dow down -190 points,
- NASDAQ down -16 points, and the
- S&P index down -15 points.
US yields are lower with the
- 2–year down 3.5 basis points at 4.016%.
- 10 year is down -4.7 basis points at 4.429%, and the
- 30 year is down -4.2 basis points at 4.949%.
Fed Hammack speaks at the bottom of the hour. He JOLTS job openings for April are expected at 6.880 million versus 6.866 million
