Markets
The stock sell-off that loomed following Broadcom’s earnings (outlook) miss turned out to be more of a sectoral rotation rather than a broad-based slump. The industrial Dow Jones Index rallied 1.7% while the Nasdaq was bought on a 1.1% opening dip. This tech-heavy index eventually finished virtually unchanged. When looking at Asian trading this morning, valuation concerns may not have fully subsided though. South Korean indices, seen as an AI-bellwether, slump up to 5% and Nasdaq futures, though still very early, trade 1% lower. Core bonds gained but closed off the intraday highs. Net daily changes for US yields varied between -1.8 and -3.8 bps in a bull steepening move. German rates ended less than 1.5 bps lower across the curve. Lower oil prices have inspired bond investors in doing so. Brent retreated from a close just shy of $98 on Wednesday to $95 yesterday after the US brokered a new ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. But signs of it being respected are next to non-existent. Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon also rejected some of the terms, saying they won’t cease their attacks unless Israel fully withdraws from Lebanon. Meanwhile the stalemate between the US and Iran persists, and with it the familiar opposing views of how peace talks are going. According to president Trump truce talks between the two are in the final stages while Iran said negotiations had stalled. Currency markets showed no major moves. A EUR/USD recovery already hit resistance around 1.165 and eventually settled at 1.161, marginally higher than the 1.16 open. USD/JPY recouped most of the intraday losses which were inspired by weaker oil (USD) and talk of BoJ rate hikes (JPY). The pair holds firm ground around the 160 interventionist barrier.
Today centers around the May US payrolls. The traditional beginning-of-the-month economic update so far has surprised to the upside: from Monday’s manufacturing ISM over Tuesday’s JOLTS to Wednesday’s ADP job report and services ISM. The string of solid data makes Fed hawks increasingly vocal. Cleveland Fed Hammack and Dallas Fed Logan hinted at a rate hike later (this year) if the current trends of higher inflation and a resilient economy with a stable labour market continue. That should be preluded by a change in wording of the policy statement. We expect the current dovish bias to disappear at the June policy meeting. The labour market report today should underpin this. Consensus expects an 88k job increase, slightly decelerating from April’s 115k. We think that bar is beatable. The unemployment rate is anticipated to stabilize around 4.3%. A first full Fed hike is priced in by March 2027 but there’s room to pull this forward in time, potentially supporting the USD and US (front-end) rates.
News & Views
The Reserve Bank of India left its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% this morning. Real GDP growth for 2026-27 is projected at 6.6% (down from 6.9%). Prolonged global supply chain disruptions, heightened volatility in global financial markets, and weather-related shocks continue to pose downside risks. CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be 5.1% (up from 4.6%) with core inflation expected at 4.7%. Headline CPI is forecast to firm towards the upper tolerance level (6%) before subsiding as the energy shock wanes. These forecasts are subject to upside risks due to global supply chain disruptions and uncertainty about the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon. The MPC for now retains a neutral stance, but admits that risks of higher inflation have amplified. The Indian rupee is a tad stronger this morning but overall holds near all-time lows against the dollar (USD/INR 95.35 vs 97). The currency is also part of future deliberations for the Indian central bank. The RBI vows to prevent disorderly FX movements and announced steps to boost capital inflows into the country (more bonds in fully accessible route for foreign investors and concessional FX swaps).
Anthropic argues in a blog post on its website that they believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology. AI systems are advancing so rapidly that they may soon be able to improve themselves without human intervention in ways that could pose significant societal risks. This is called recursive self-improvement. “We are not there yet, and recursive self-improvement is not inevitable. But it could come sooner than most institutions are prepared for.”
