When the price of any traded asset breaks below a key technical level, it typically shifts the bias in the direction of the break and turns that level into an important risk-defining area. That is the situation silver finds itself in after closing below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since April 2025, more than a year ago. The 200-day moving average, currently at $67.26, now serves as a key barometer for the trend. As long as the price remains below that level, sellers retain the technical advantage.
On the downside, silver traded to a low of $63.38 today, briefly moving below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in at $63.98. However, buyers stepped in and the price has since rebounded to around $64.76. That leaves the market caught in a battle between the 61.8% retracement support level and the overhead resistance from the 200-day moving average.
For now, the sellers remain in control while the price stays below the 200-day moving average. A renewed move below the 61.8% retracement with momentum would strengthen the bearish case and shift focus toward the March swing low and the 2026 low at $61.02.
If sellers are able to break below $61.02, the technical picture would deteriorate further. Beyond that level, chart support becomes sparse, leaving room for a deeper decline toward the next significant support zone near $54.46.
Silver began the year with strong bullish momentum, rallying sharply from its year-end closing level of $71.60 to a peak of $121.64 on January 29. However, that surge proved unsustainable, and the metal quickly reversed course, plunging to $64.10 by February 6.
Since then, price action has been marked by heightened volatility, with large swings in both directions. The decline extended to a new low for the year at $61.02 on March 23 before buyers regained control and drove prices higher. That recovery culminated in a swing high of $89.37 on May 13.
The rally from the March low has since given way to another sharp correction. Since the May peak, silver has fallen approximately 28% in just 18 trading days, underscoring the aggressive selling pressure that has emerged and the elevated volatility that continues to characterize the market.
