EUR/USD edges higher during the North American session on Friday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, even though a solid US jobs report might prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates in the upcoming months. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1775, up 0.44%.
Euro gains as geopolitical fears outweigh upbeat US payrolls
Tensions around the US-Iran conflict heightened as they exchanged strikes for control of the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said they’re waiting for Tehran’s response to the 14-point memorandum, aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait.
In the US, Nonfarm Payrolls for April crushed estimates of 62K jobs added to the economy, increased by 115K, while March’s print was upwardly revised to 185K. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.3%, below the Fed’s 4.5% projected for the whole year, while Average Hourly Earnings rose by 3.6% beneath forecasts of 3.8%.
Although the data is positive, the Greenback failed to recover, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and also by consumers turning pessimistic about the economy, as revealed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
The preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index slid to a record low in May, falling to an all-time low of 48.2, down from April’s 49.8.
Comments of Joane Hsu, the Director of the Surveys of Consumers, show households complaining about “soaring prices at the pump,” as the developments in the Middle East are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Digging into the report, inflation expectations over the next year dipped from 4.7% to 4.5%. For the next five years, it dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) seems poised to end the week with gains of over 0.44%, even though Industrial Production in Germany plunged 0.7% in March, missing estimates and worse than the previous month’s.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1772, extending its recovery above the clustered simple moving averages around 1.1640 and staying well bid over the rising support trend line anchored near 1.1411. This positioning above both dynamic and structural floors suggests a bullish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 58 keeps positive but not overbought momentum in place, hinting that buyers still retain control as long as the pair holds above these underlying levels.
On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the latest close at 1.1772, ahead of the triple simple moving average region near 1.1640, with the broader uptrend protected by the ascending trend line starting from 1.1411. On the topside, the next notable hurdle is the broader descending resistance trend line projected from the 1.1929 area, and a sustained break over that barrier would likely open the path for an extension of the current advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on May 8 at 16:01 GMT to say that March’s NFP print was upwardly revised to 185K instead of downwardly revised to 178K.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.19% -0.19% -0.03% 0.75% -0.40% -0.98% -0.35% EUR 0.19% -0.01% 0.11% 0.94% -0.15% -0.79% -0.11% GBP 0.19% 0.00% 0.13% 0.95% -0.14% -0.78% -0.12% JPY 0.03% -0.11% -0.13% 0.85% -0.31% -0.85% -0.31% CAD -0.75% -0.94% -0.95% -0.85% -1.11% -1.69% -1.06% AUD 0.40% 0.15% 0.14% 0.31% 1.11% -0.64% 0.02% NZD 0.98% 0.79% 0.78% 0.85% 1.69% 0.64% 0.67% CHF 0.35% 0.11% 0.12% 0.31% 1.06% -0.02% -0.67%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Euro climbs as Hormuz tensions eclipse hot US jobs report can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Euro climbs as Hormuz tensions eclipse hot US jobs report may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
