The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the Dollar (USD), yet moving within previous ranges on Monday. The pair has returned to the upper side of the 1.1700s range, and is trading at 1.1775 at the time of writing after a negative opening, following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace plan.
Trump posted on social media that Tehran’s latest peace proposal was “totally unacceptable”, crushing market hopes of a swift end to the war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped after the news, with the barrel of Brent returning above $100, which puts the Eurozone’s Crude-importing economies under pressure and undermines the Euro’s upside attempts.
On the macroeconomic front, US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations on Friday, showing a 115K increase, almost twice the 62K expected. These figures strengthen the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and ease pressure on the bank to cut interest rates, which provides support to the Greenback.
The economic calendar is thin in the US and Europe on Monday. Later this week, US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, and US Retail Sales on Thursday, together with Fed speakers throughout the week, will provide the fundamental guidance for the USD. In Europe, Germany’s final consumer inflation data on Tuesday, but above all, Wednesday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech, will be the highlights of the week.
Technical Analysis: Bulls to be tested at 1.1800
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EUR/USD shows a modest bullish bias with momentum readings backing this constructive tone. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is near 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers retain control.
Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between 1.1790 and 1.1800 (around April 20, May 6, 8 highs), which, so far, is closing the path to April’s high, in the 1.1850 area. Further up, February’s top, at the 1.1930 area, would come into focus.
On the downside, session lows at the 1.1750 area and Friday’s lows, near 1.1725, are likely to provide some support to a potential bearish reversal, although the key support is at the area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which contained downside attempts in April.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Euro picks up despite growing geopolitical risks, higher Oil prices can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Euro picks up despite growing geopolitical risks, higher Oil prices may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
