The EUR/USD pair edges up by 0.12% on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) drops amid hostilities in the Middle East, while a US-Iran deal is reportedly pending approval by the White House and senior Iranian officials. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1664.
EUR/USD gains as Hormuz reopening hopes pressure US Dollar and crude
Sentiment remains positive amid a post in social media by US President Donald Trump, who said that Iran must agree that it will never have a nuclear weapon or bomb, adding that the Strait of Hormuz must be open immediately and that water mines would be terminated by Iran. Regarding the enriched uranium, Trump said “It will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED.”
In the headline, Oil prices tumbled by 1.50% with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extending its losses toward $87.20, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.17%. The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, sits at 98.81, a tailwind for the shared currency.
The US economic schedule featured the Chicago PMI, which expanded by 62.7, exceeding estimates of 50.5.
Aside from data releases, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman commented that the disinflation process has stalled, and that she would consider a shift in the policy outlook if war-driven inflation broadens.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said inflationary pressures are weighing on the economy, making it tough for firms to plan for the future. Earlier, Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid said the US central bank needs to weigh how to tighten monetary policy, warning against treating the Oil shock as transitory.
Across the pond, German inflation eased in May from 2.9% to 2.7% YoY, according to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Core figures rose from 2.3% in April to 2.5% YoY.
Next week, the US and Eurozone economic schedules will feature Flash PMIs across Europe, while in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to deteriorate modestly in the May reading.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1679. The pair holds a constructive near‑term bias as it trades above the cluster of simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200) grouped around 1.1666 and remains supported by the rising trend line break area near 1.1582. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.5 is close to neutral but tilts slightly to the upside, suggesting modest bullish momentum while price consolidates above its underlying trend support.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the descending trend line break level around 1.1809, where prior rallies have struggled. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the latest close region around 1.1679, followed by the simple moving average cluster near 1.1666, with the former trend line break at 1.1582 providing a deeper cushion ahead of the more distant structural floor near 1.1245.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.32% -0.15% 0.24% -0.19% -0.43% -1.86% -0.36% EUR 0.32% 0.20% 0.60% 0.14% -0.15% -1.56% -0.05% GBP 0.15% -0.20% 0.15% -0.07% -0.35% -1.75% -0.21% JPY -0.24% -0.60% -0.15% -0.45% -0.71% -2.12% -0.62% CAD 0.19% -0.14% 0.07% 0.45% -0.27% -1.69% -0.14% AUD 0.43% 0.15% 0.35% 0.71% 0.27% -1.40% 0.09% NZD 1.86% 1.56% 1.75% 2.12% 1.69% 1.40% 1.56% CHF 0.36% 0.05% 0.21% 0.62% 0.14% -0.09% -1.56%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Euro rises as US-Iran deal hopes sink US Dollar and Oil can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Euro rises as US-Iran deal hopes sink US Dollar and Oil may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
