EUR/USD edges lower for the third consecutive day during the North American session, down 0.22%, as US economic data showed consumers’ resilience. In contrast, jobless benefits data showed a slight increase in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits. The pair trades at 1.1679 after reaching a high of 1.1721.
EUR/USD weakens as sticky inflation keeps Fed cut bets sidelined
US Retail Sales rose in April by 0.5% MoM, aligned with estimates, slightly below March’s print. Sales increased 4.9% YoY in the same period, exceeding estimates of 3.3% growth. Other data showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 9 rose by 211K, above forecasts of 205K.
Household spending is notable due to the jump in energy prices, with receipts at gasoline stations rising 2.8%, after surging 13.7% in March. Data from the US EIA revealed that gasoline prices rose by 12.3% last month.
On the headline, the Greenback extended its gains according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.33% at 98.77, refreshing ten-day highs. Consequently, the Euro dropped and is poised to extend its losses as Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid states that “inflation is the most pressing risk to the US economy.”
Schmid added that the economy “has shown remarkable resilience” and that the job market is “functioning effectively.”
His comments come after the latest consumer and producer price data, which reaffirmed that inflation remains sticky and stubbornly higher, clearly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
The money markets’ view on interest rates suggests there is no chance of a Fed rate cut in 2026.
Across the pond, inflation in Spain came as expected at 3.2% YoY in April, down from March’s 3.4%.
Ahead of the Eurozone economic schedule, inflation in Italy will be featured. In the US, traders would digest the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1676, holding just under the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.1647, which now sit slightly below price and suggest only a modest underlying cushion within a broader capped setup. The Relative Strength Index (14) near 46 points to waning bullish momentum, while the confluence of the prior downward resistance trend line and the broken rising support line above current levels hints that rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the former rising trend-line area around 1.1759, followed by the downward resistance line region near 1.1796, where recent advances previously stalled. With no clearly defined structural floors below spot in this dataset, a sustained break under the nearby SMA cluster around 1.1647 would expose the pair to deeper losses, leaving EUR/USD reliant on fresh demand emerging at lower, as yet undefined, levels to arrest any further downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.61% 0.57% 0.92% 0.33% -0.04% 0.27% 0.66% EUR -0.61% -0.05% 0.39% -0.29% -0.65% -0.38% 0.04% GBP -0.57% 0.05% -0.06% -0.26% -0.62% -0.32% 0.09% JPY -0.92% -0.39% 0.06% -0.66% -0.98% -0.66% -0.24% CAD -0.33% 0.29% 0.26% 0.66% -0.26% 0.00% 0.32% AUD 0.04% 0.65% 0.62% 0.98% 0.26% 0.31% 0.70% NZD -0.27% 0.38% 0.32% 0.66% -0.00% -0.31% 0.38% CHF -0.66% -0.04% -0.09% 0.24% -0.32% -0.70% -0.38%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of currency markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Euro slides as resilient US sales fuel Dollar rally can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching central-bank expectations, yield differentials, dollar momentum and risk appetite together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the move is confirmed by the U.S. dollar index and short-term rate expectations.
- How London and New York liquidity react once the initial headline risk is absorbed.
- Whether price action respects the latest support and resistance zones instead of fading immediately.
- Any follow-up comments from central-bank officials or data releases that change the rate path.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from central-bank expectations, yield differentials, dollar momentum and risk appetite. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For currency markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Euro slides as resilient US sales fuel Dollar rally may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
