The marginal delay to LNG normalisation, pushed from end-June to end-July, is a small but meaningful signal that the physical market is not clearing as quickly as hoped following the MOU signing. The Hormuz tail risk is the most market-sensitive element of the note: a move above 100 EUR/MWh this winter would represent more than a doubling of Goldman’s 2H26 base case and would have severe knock-on effects for European industrial demand, power prices and inflation. That scenario remains contingent on a sustained blockade resumption, which is not Goldman’s central case, but the explicit quantification of it will anchor trader thinking on the upside. The steep descent in Goldman’s 2028-29 forecasts to 19-16 EUR/MWh reflects confidence that LNG supply additions will eventually overwhelm the current tightness, keeping the long end of the gas curve under pressure.
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Goldman Sachs held its TTF gas forecasts near unchanged at 41/30 EUR/MWh for 2H26/2027, pushed LNG normalisation to end-July, and warned prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh this winter if Hormuz stays blocked.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs maintained its 2H26 TTF gas price forecast at 41 EUR/MWh and its 2027 forecast at 30 EUR/MWh, marginally lower than prior estimates of 42/30 EUR/MWh
- LNG flow normalisation is now expected by end-July, a month later than the bank’s previous end-June assumption
- Risks to the 2026-27 price outlook remain skewed to the upside
- If the Hormuz blockade were to largely continue, Goldman estimates TTF would need to rise above 100 EUR/MWh this winter to price out competing Asian LNG demand
- The bank maintains a bearish 2028-29 TTF view at 19-16 EUR/MWh, with risks to that period skewed to the downside
Goldman Sachs has held its European natural gas price forecasts largely steady while pushing back its timeline for LNG market normalisation by one month, and flagged that a resumption of the Hormuz blockade could drive TTF prices above 100 EUR/MWh this winter.
The bank kept its second-half 2026 TTF forecast at 41 EUR/MWh, down only marginally from a prior estimate of 42 EUR/MWh, and maintained its 2027 average forecast at 30 EUR/MWh. Goldman said risks to both years remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the fragility of the current geopolitical settlement and the pace at which LNG flows are returning to the market.
On that last point, Goldman revised its normalisation assumption from end-June to end-July, a modest but telling shift that suggests the physical LNG market is taking longer to recover from the Hormuz disruption than the bank had initially projected. The delay reflects lingering hesitancy among shipowners and insurers to resume normal routing, a dynamic consistent with reports of nearly 500 vessels remaining anchored outside the strait despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
The most striking element of the note was Goldman’s quantification of the downside scenario. Should the Hormuz blockade largely continue rather than ease, the bank estimates TTF would need to trade above 100 EUR/MWh this winter to generate enough demand destruction in Asia to rebalance the European market. At more than double the base case, such a level would represent a severe energy shock for European consumers and industry heading into the heating season.
Beyond the near term, Goldman maintained a distinctly bearish view on the gas market from 2028 onward, forecasting TTF at 19 EUR/MWh in 2028 and 16 EUR/MWh in 2029, with risks to those years skewed to the downside. The bank’s long-run bearishness reflects expectations that a wave of new LNG supply capacity will come online and progressively erode the tightness that has characterised the market since the 2022 energy crisis.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Goldman holds TTF gas forecasts, flags upside risk and delayed LNG recovery may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
