The week remained focused on the Iran situation, as negotiations reached an important stage. Some progress was reported, but major issues remained, especially around Iran’s uranium enrichment program and how quickly sanctions could be eased.
USD/JPY pushed higher as the Bank of Japan stayed on the sidelines and markets continued to focus on the gap between US and Japanese interest rates. US economic data was weaker than expected, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report falling to 44.8 from 48.2. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also pushed back against hopes for early rate cuts, supporting the view that US rates may stay high for longer.
WTI oil fell back toward $100 as hopes for a settlement reduced some of the immediate supply fears. Even with geopolitical risks, US stock markets finished the week higher. The Dow reached a new record high, and the S&P 500 rose for the eighth straight week, helped by continued interest in AI stocks.
Markets This Week
US Stocks
The Dow reached new record highs as worries about inflation and higher interest rates were outweighed by optimism about future company earnings. The uptrend remains strong, and with the potential for progress toward ending the conflict with Iran in the coming week, focusing on buying opportunities looks to be the best strategy.
Resistance levels are at 51,000, 51,500 and 52,000. Support is seen at 50,000, 49,500, 49,000, 48,500 and 48,000.
Japanese Stocks
The Nikkei 225 returned to record highs as lower oil prices and a strong outlook for AI-related companies supported positive market sentiment. The recovery is encouraging, but the short-term trend is still moving sideways, so looking for range-trading opportunities may be the preferred strategy this week.
Resistance is seen at 64,000, 65,000, 66,000, 67,000 and 68,000, while support is at 61,000, 60,000, 59,000, 58,500 and 57,000.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continued to test higher as short-term traders who expected more yen-buying action from the Bank of Japan were caught holding short positions. Comments from the new Fed Chair also supported USD/JPY, as he suggested that interest rate cuts may take longer than expected due to high inflation.
For medium-term traders, selling opportunities ahead of 160 may be the preferred strategy, as intervention risk remains high near that level. For short-term traders, focusing on the current small range or waiting for higher volatility may be the better approach.
Resistance is at 160.00, 160.50, 162.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 158.00, 157.00, 156.00, 155.50 and 155.00.
Gold
Gold continued to test lower last week as a stronger US dollar and expectations for higher long-term interest rates reduced demand for the metal. The market remains relatively quiet overall, and it was surprising that there was not more selling pressure after prices moved below last month’s lows.
A quick end to the conflict with Iran could bring some buying interest back into gold, but for now, looking for further downside seems most likely to be the best strategy.
Resistance is at $4,550, $4,600, $4,665, $4,750 and $4,900, while support is at $4,500, $4,450 and $4,350.
Crude Oil
WTI crude oil tested higher at the start of the week, but later fell back toward $100 after Trump indicated that talks with Iran were productive and close to a possible conclusion.
The negotiations remain difficult to forecast, but Trump has a strong motivation to end the conflict quickly to help support the US economy. At the moment, headlines about Iran are driving oil prices, and there appears to be more risk to the downside if progress toward a settlement continues.
Resistance is at $105, $110 and $120, while support is at $95, $90, $80, $75, $70 and $67.50.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell last week as selling in ETFs and rising long-term interest rates around the world reduced demand for risk assets. Higher yields are becoming more attractive for some investors, which put pressure on Bitcoin.
However, support at $75,000 held, so range-trading opportunities may remain the best strategy as long as this level continues to hold.
Resistance is at $80,000, $85,000 and $90,000, while support is at $75,000, $65,000, $60,000 and $55,000.
This Week’s Focus
- Monday: UK and US holiday
- Tuesday: Japan BoJ Core CPI, US CB Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: Australia CPI
- Thursday: US Building Permits, Core PCE Price Index, GDP, Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales
- Friday: Japan Tokyo Core CPI and Industrial Production, EU German Unemployment Rate, US Chicago PMI
USD/JPY will still be important this week, as traders remain cautious about possible Bank of Japan intervention if yen weakness continues. The week may start quietly because of holidays in the UK and US, with no major economic announcements until Thursday.
Markets are likely to focus mainly on headlines from the Iran-US negotiations.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of currency markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Iran Talks Drive Market Focus as USD/JPY Tests Higher can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching central-bank expectations, yield differentials, dollar momentum and risk appetite together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the move is confirmed by the U.S. dollar index and short-term rate expectations.
- How London and New York liquidity react once the initial headline risk is absorbed.
- Whether price action respects the latest support and resistance zones instead of fading immediately.
- Any follow-up comments from central-bank officials or data releases that change the rate path.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from central-bank expectations, yield differentials, dollar momentum and risk appetite. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For currency markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Iran Talks Drive Market Focus as USD/JPY Tests Higher may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
