The copper bull case got a fresh proponent today as Scotiabank’s Orest Wowkodaw is back with a market update barely a month after his last one, and the message is that things are tightening faster than expected. Three major supply blows — Grasberg cuts, Kamoa-Kakula downgrades, and Barrick parking the Reko Diq project — have forced a rewrite of the deficit math.
How material? Scotia now sees a 2026 deficit of 529kt and a 2027 deficit of 375kt, up from 350kt and 99kt previously. That’s 1.9% and 1.3% of demand. The medium term looks even uglier on the supply side, with the 2030 deficit ballooning to 1,010kt from 713kt.
Wowkodaw’s blunt take:
“Overall, the recently updated multi-year guidance downgrades to Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, combined with the deferral of Reko Diq, are material to the market and represent a very bullish development for the Cu price outlook.”
Copper is flat today at $6.03 but has weathered the growth risks from the Iran war surprisingly well and that’s a good sign.
The supply backdrop is so weak that demand growth of just 1.4% per year is now enough to balance the market through 2028, down from 1.75% previously, according to Scotia. That’s a low bar.
Scotia explicitly isn’t baking in two real risks. From the report:
“Although our analysis assumes no demand impacts from potential economic weakness associated with elevated oil/diesel/energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, we also don’t account for potential supply risks to Cu cathode production (~15% of global mine output) due to sulphuric acid shortages and materially higher input costs.”
A large portion of sulphuric acid used in copper mines passed through the Strait of Hormuz. If the blockade continues, or restarts are slow, the deficit forecast might actually be conservative on the supply side. Cathode at risk is roughly 15% of global mine output.
Spot copper sits at $6.03/lb, and the equities are pricing in $6.21/lb on Scotia’s 8% NAV math — only a 4% premium. That sounds reasonable until you see the context:
“The current 4% premium to spot is well below the three-year average premium of 19% and the long-term (since 2018) average premium of 9%.”
Translation: copper miners are cheap relative to where the metal trades, especially when you stack the bullish supply revisions on top. In 2025, the average premium was 15%, with a 26% peak in January. Today’s 4% leaves room to run if Scotia’s deficit forecasts are right.
On individual names, FM is the top pick — penalized for Cobre Panama uncertainty but trading at an implied $5.32/lb, well below spot. CS, ERO, FCX, and LUN round out the recommended exposure list. IVN looks structurally undervalued too, helped by a Platreef contribution and despite Kamoa-Kakula disappointment.
Target prices for the SO-rated names: FM C$47 (31% upside), CS C$15.50 (34%), ERO C$50 (34%), FCX US$67 (11%), LUN C$36 (-3% — already ran past target after February’s pop to $44).
Q1 reporting season in May is the next checkpoint but it’s looking like the multi-year copper deficits I’ve been writing about for years aren’t a forecast anymore, they’re the base case.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Scotia more bullish on copper as supply keeps disappointing — 3 big mines just got smaller may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
