Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW

Silver broke down last week as continued escalations in the Strait of
Hormuz and hawkish Fed expectations after the strong NFP raised real yields and
tightened financial conditions. Everything changed on Thursday when Trump
cancelled his planned attacks on Iran and announced a deal with confirming
reports from the Iranian side. This surprising breakthrough triggered a strong
reversal on expectations of lower oil prices, easing inflation concerns and lower
risks of rate hikes.

In the short-term, the focus continues to be on the positive drivers from
the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, so we can expect the bullish bias to
hold (all else being equal) but the FOMC decision today remains a risk.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged and remove the
easing bias from the statement. At this meeting, we will also get the Summary
of Economic Projections (SEP) where inflation is expected to be revised higher
while the unemployment rate could see a slight downtick in the short-term. The
focus will be mostly on the dot plot which is expected to show no cuts this
year and the next. All of this is expected and already priced in.

• You can find a comprehensive Fed preview here

The main hawkish surprises include a rate hike in the 2026 dot or more than
one in 2027. In this scenario, we will likely see a selloff in silver with the
price falling back to pre-deal levels. On the other hand, the dovish surprises
include a rate cut in the 2026 dot or in the 2027 dot as that would implicitly
signal an easing bias. In such a scenario, we can expect silver to rally into
new highs and start targeting the 90.00 handle.

Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference will also be in focus, although I
would argue that the Board is going to be more important than the Fed Chair at
least until the markets get to know him better and he proves to be independent.
Trump just gave Warsh a big assist by ending the war, so he can say the Fed can
look through the short-term increase in inflation.

Looking ahead, the risk is that the negative supply shock caused by the
US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends that boosts
economic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway. That’s likely to be the
next tail risk for precious metals.

SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can
see that silver broke below the major trendline last week and extended the
losses targeting the next major trendline until the surprising US-Iran deal
reversed the momentum. The price has almost pulled all the way back to the
broken trendline where we have now a strong resistance around the 71.00-73-00
price area.

This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the broken trendline to keep
pushing into the next major trendline around the 55.00 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to open the door for
a rally back into the 90.00 handle.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the market opened the week with a positive gap and consolidated. It wouldn’t
be surprising to see a spike lower to close the gap before another rally into new
highs, but that will likely need to be supported by the FOMC decision today.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent rangebound price action as traders await the Fed’s
decision. We can expect the buyers to step in around the 68.00-69.00 price area
to position for a rally into the 90.00 handle on a neutral to dovish Fed
decision. Conversely, a more hawkish than expected one should result in a
selloff back towards the pre-deal levels. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today, we have the FOMC
rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On
Friday, the US-Iran “peace deal” is expected to be signed in Switzerland.

Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.

Next Move Markets desk view

For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.

A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.

What traders should watch next

• Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
• How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
• Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
• ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.

Risk context

This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.

Scenario map

The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.

For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.

Execution discipline

• Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
• Separate news from setup: Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
• Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
• Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.

Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.

Next Move Markets desk view

For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.

A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.

What traders should watch next

• Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
• How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
• Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
• ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.

Risk context

This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.

Scenario map

The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.

For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.

Execution discipline

• Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
• Separate news from setup: Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
• Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
• Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.

Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.

Next Move Markets desk view

For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.

A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.

What traders should watch next

• Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
• How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
• Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
• ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.

Risk context

This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.

Scenario map

The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.

For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.

Execution discipline

• Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
• Separate news from setup: Silver awaits the FOMC decision to extend gains as hawkish risk keeps the market on edge may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
• Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
• Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.

Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.