The markets are treading water as the North American session gets underway, with little conviction across the major asset classes ahead of key economic releases. Oil prices are marginally higher—up about $0.25—but the move lacks momentum, reflecting a market still balancing geopolitical uncertainty and most importantly, the opening or not of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the rates market, the yield curve is showing a modest steepening bias, with short-end yields inching lower while longer-dated yields drift slightly higher. That dynamic suggests a market that is not yet ready to fully commit to a policy path, instead waiting for clearer signals from incoming data.
Equities are similarly subdued. The major US indices are hovering near unchanged levels, caught between competing forces of resilient economic data and lingering uncertainty around inflation and central bank policy. There is no strong directional push, reinforcing the idea that traders are in a holding pattern as they await the next catalyst.
In the foreign exchange market, the USD is mixed. The greenback is firmer against the JPY, supported in part by the uptick in longer-term yields, while slipping modestly against the EUR and GBP. However, the moves are relatively contained, underscoring the broader theme of consolidation and indecision across markets.
In the video above, I walk through the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. The focus remains on identifying the bias, defining the key risk levels traders are leaning against, and outlining the upside and downside targets that will shape the next directional move. As always, those technical levels serve as the barometer for buyers and sellers—levels where risk can be defined and where momentum either builds or fades.
Looking ahead, the calendar is front-loaded with important data that could provide that needed catalyst. At 8:30 AM ET, the US CPI report takes center stage. Expectations are for a 0.9% rise in the headline month-over-month figure, a notable jump from the 0.3% increase last month, while core CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is projected at 3.3%, with core at 2.7%. Any deviation from those expectations—especially on the core side—could quickly shift rate expectations and, in turn, drive moves in yields, equities, and the USD.
At the same time, Canada releases its March employment report. Job growth is expected to rebound modestly with a gain of 15.0K following last month’s sharp decline of 83.9K. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly to 6.8% from 6.7%. Traders will also be watching the composition of employment after last month’s notable drop in full-time jobs (-108.4K) contrasted with a rise in part-time positions (+24.5K), a mix that raised some concerns about underlying labor market strength.
Later in the morning, at 10:00 AM ET, US factory orders for February are expected to decline by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in January. With preliminary durable goods orders already showing a -1.4% drop, the revision and the broader factory orders data will provide additional insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.
Bottom line: Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, with price action subdued across assets. The technical levels in the major currency pairs remain the key guideposts for traders, but it is the upcoming data—particularly CPI—that has the potential to break the current stalemate and set the next directional tone.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The markets – including the USD – are little changed to kickstart the Friday trading may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
