The USD Is higher vs the major currencies to kickstart the new trading day. The biggest gains are vs the AUD (+0.64%) and the NZD (+0.49%). The greenback is up 0.30% vs the EUR, 0.17% vs the JPY and 0.22% vs the GBP. In the video above, I talk about the technicals in play for those 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the North American session.
Recall, yesterday, President Trump announced a delay in a planned U.S. military strike on Iran after requests from key Middle East allies including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who pushed for more time to pursue negotiations and avoid a broader regional conflict.
The delay followed reports that Iran had submitted a response aimed at ending the conflict, although major differences reportedly remain on nuclear and security issues. Trump made clear the pause is conditional, stressing that U.S. military forces remain ready to launch a large-scale strike quickly if talks fail to produce an acceptable agreement.
The shifting headlines led to volatile market reactions. Oil prices initially pulled back on hopes of de-escalation, while risk sentiment improved modestly in stocks. However, traders remain cautious given the uncertainty surrounding negotiations and the continued threat of renewed military action.
All is not calm as Iranian comments warn against opening “new fronts against them with new tools and methods”.
Oil prices this morning show July crude is trading down $0.60 at $103.75 with the low at $102.12 and the high at $104.18.
In other commodities this morning:
- Gold is down -$24 or -0.50% at $4542
- Silver is down -$1.67 or -2.20% at $75.95
- Bitcoin is trading -$257 or -0.34% at 76610.
US stocks are trading lower in pre-market tradin with the Dow implying a decline of -97 points, the S&P is down -27 points and the Nadaq is down -200 points (futures implied).
Yields in the US are trading lower with the:
- 2 year down -1.8 basis points at 4.0717
- 5 year down -1.7 basis points at 4.263%
- 10 year down -1.2 basis points at 4.611%
- 30 year unchanged at 5.147%.
Today’s economic calendar is highlighted by Canada’s CPI inflation report and U.S. housing data.
In Canada, headline CPI for April is expected at 0.7% m/m versus -0.4% prior, while the annual rate is seen rising to 3.1% y/y from 2.4% prior. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures are also expected to remain elevated, with CPI Median seen at 2.2% vs 2.3% prior and CPI Trim at 2.1% vs 2.2% prior.
In the U.S., traders will also watch housing-related data. Pending Home Sales for April are expected at 1.0% m/m versus 1.5% prior, while the prior reading for the Pending Home Sales Index stood at 73.7.
Today’s Fed speak features Governor Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, with both expected to reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation.
Waller, a current voter, has recently stressed the need to monitor inflation expectations closely as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices risk keeping inflation elevated. While acknowledging some labor market softening, he has leaned toward keeping rates steady unless inflation improves further.
Paulson, a 2026 voter, has warned that commodity shocks tied to global conflicts could feed inflation more persistently. She has emphasized the importance of Fed credibility on inflation while remaining data dependent, and has also pointed to AI-driven productivity gains as a possible longer-term offset to price pressures.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of equity markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is higher to kickstart the trading day. Stocks pointing lower. Yields lower too. can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching earnings expectations, sector rotation, rates, liquidity and index breadth together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the move is broad across sectors or concentrated in a small group of large names.
- How index futures behave around the U.S. cash open and late-session liquidity.
- Whether earnings revisions, guidance or analyst updates support the headline.
- Rate expectations and bond yields, which can quickly change equity valuation pressure.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from earnings expectations, sector rotation, rates, liquidity and index breadth. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For equity markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is higher to kickstart the trading day. Stocks pointing lower. Yields lower too. may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
