The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session

The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session. IN the video above, I take a look at the technicals that are defining the bias, the risk and the targets for those pairs ahead of the CPI data at 8:30 AM ET

In other developments, geopolitics remain in the forefront for traders and the markets. The US and Iran traded direct strikes overnight. After Iran downed a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz Monday (both crew rescued safely), the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait. Iran hit back early Wednesday, with the IRGC launching missiles and drones at a U.S. base in Jordan (five missiles intercepted), the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and targets in Kuwait, while Saudi Arabia intercepted two cruise missiles and nine drones near Riyadh.

Meanwhile, Israel and Hezbollah traded fire overnight, with Israeli strikes south of Beirut killing six, and later hits on a hotel in suburban Beirut and a building in Baalbek.

Trump’s tone turned sharply negative on the peace deal. On Truth Social he posted: “Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!”. Recall from earlier this week, he reiterated that a deal was hours away.

Markets are still pricing containment: WTI is currently up about $1.78 at $89.90. That is up from the low for the day at $87.39. The high is at $90.42. Crude has underlying support from an eighth straight weekly inventory draw (-9.1M bbl per API).. Gasoline and cushion also fell

The EIA will release their numbers later today at 10:30 AM ET where the expectations are for crude to have a draw of -3.974M, gasoline to have a draw of -0.471M, and distillates to have a draw of -0.488M.

US stocks are on the defensive with the Nasdaq sharply lower after a volatile day of about 1200 points. Tne NASDAQ is down -447 points. The Dow industrial average is down -440 points, and the S&P index is down -72.65 points in premarket trading.

US bond yields are higher with the two-year up 1.5 basis points at 4.139%. The 10 year is up 1.0 basis points at 4.538%. The US treasury will auction off 10 year notes at 1 PM.

The key US release today will be at 8:30 AM ET, when the May CPI report will be announced. The key estimates are:

• Headline CPI is expected at +0.5% MoM versus +0.6% prior, with the YoY rate expected at +4.2% versus +3.8% prior.
• Core CPI is expected at +0.3% MoM versus +0.4% prior, with the YoY rate expected at +2.9% versus +2.8% prior.

The headline CPI has been above the 2% target since March 2021, while core YoY has been above that level since April 2021.

The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET and is widely expected to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The central bank continues to balance persistent inflation concerns against signs of slowing economic growth and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and global geopolitical developments.

While financial markets have priced in some risk of additional tightening later this year, most economists expect the BoC to remain on hold through year-end as it evaluates the impact of the upcoming USMCA review, labor market conditions, and the broader economic outlook.

Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.

Next Move Markets desk view

For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.

A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.

What traders should watch next

• Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
• How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
• Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
• Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.

Risk context

This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.

Scenario map

The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.

For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.

Execution discipline

• Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
• Separate news from setup: The USD is little changed vs the EUR, JPY and GBP to start the North American session may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
• Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
• Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.

Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.