The USD is mixed/little changed with the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD all trading within 0.05% of unchanged on the day. The UK inflation data came in lower than expections helped by one off and base effects. The EU final CPI came in as expected. In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective.
Meanwhile, the AUD and the NZD are the biggest movers as they benefit from higher stocks and lower yields as the NA session begins. Needless to say, the situation in the Middle east remain on a knifes edge but Trump says they will end the war very quickly but has not ruled out more conflict as well.
Today, in review, UK inflation came in softer than expected in April, with headline CPI slowing to 2.8% year-over-year versus the 3.0% estimate and down from 3.3% previously, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 3.1%. The biggest surprise came from services inflation, which fell sharply to 3.2% from 4.5%, helped by softer monthly price gains and a number of temporary factors. Much of the downside pressure came from housing-related costs as lower electricity and gas prices weighed on inflation, while comparisons to last year’s sharp increases in water and sewage bills also created favorable base effects. Airfares were another major drag, with prices falling this April compared to a large surge a year ago. Despite the softer report, the details suggest this is not necessarily a sign of a lasting shift lower in UK inflation. Instead, many of the declines were driven by one-off distortions and base effects, while the broader inflation outlook remains clouded by rising energy prices tied to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Eurozone inflation accelerated further in April, with headline CPI confirmed at 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in March, largely driven by another sharp increase in energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Energy inflation rose 10.8% annually, a significant jump from 5.1% previously, while monthly energy prices climbed 3.0%, making it the primary driver behind the stronger headline reading. The better news for the ECB was that core inflation remained contained, easing slightly to 2.2% from 2.3%, suggesting that broader underlying price pressures have not yet fully absorbed the higher energy costs. Services inflation also cooled modestly to 3.0% from 3.3%, while food inflation held relatively steady near 2.4%. However, the overall report still points to building inflation pressures as elevated energy costs increasingly filter through the broader economy. With the US-Iran conflict continuing and no clear resolution in sight, inflation in the euro area is expected to remain supported through Q2 and likely into the early part of Q3.
Looking at the pre-market for US stocks, futures are implying higher levels
- Dow industrial average is up 110 point
- S&P index is up 27 point
- NASDAQ index is up 176 points
After the close: the long-awaited Nvidia earnings will be released with expectations of EPS of $1.77 on revenues of $78.9 billion (of course the whisper number would be higher).
Looking at the US debt market, yields are modestly lower:
- 2 year yield 4.095%, -2.7 basis points
- 5 year yield 4.299%, -3.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.643%, -2.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 5.166%, -5 basis points
in other markets:
- Gold is up $14.33 or 0.32% at $4497.77 as it reacts to the lower rates
- Silver is up $2.11 or 2.84% at $75.74.
- Crude oil is down $1.50 at $102.54
- Bitcoin is up $500 and $77,305
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is little changed/mixed to start the North American session. What levels to watch? may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
