The USD is lower to start the week on the back of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. In the video above I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective to kickstart the North American session of the trading week. US stocks are sharply higher, yields are lower, crude oil is lower.
Of course there was the major breakthrough over the weekend as the United States and Iran have agreed to a peace deal, declaring the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts — including Lebanon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who served as mediator throughout, made the announcement Sunday, with President Trump confirming the deal shortly after on Truth Social.
The agreement is structured as a Memorandum of Understanding, kicking off a 60-day formal negotiation period between the two sides. Critically, Trump confirmed the Strait of Hormuz will reopen upon signing — the single most important development for global oil markets after months of disruption.
But before we get too giddy, the two sides are already describing the terms differently. Iran says the next phase of talks depends on the US releasing frozen Iranian funds first. Washington is pushing back, saying no funds move until Iran implements its commitments. Iran’s deputy FM also noted that last-minute military threats from Tehran “helped facilitate progress” — language that signals Tehran is entering these talks from a position it sees as one of leverage, not concession.
The war is effectively over — but the hard part of turning an MOU into a lasting agreement starts now.
Crude oil futures are down sharply. They are currently trading down $4.56 or -5.37% at $80.32. The low price reached $79.70. The high price was at $82.42. Looking at the daily chart, the price moved below its 100 day moving average last Friday (currently at a $86.71, and continued down toward the swing low reached on April 17 at $78.97. The low today fell short of that but to remain a key target to get to and through.. Below that watch $77.50 followed by the 200 day moving average at $73.41. The price just before the Epic Fury start to the war on February 28 was at $67.28.
Looking at the major US indices in premarket trading we gains are led by the NASDAQ index:
- Dow industrial average is up 479 points
- S&P index is up 94 points
- NASDAQ index is up 636 points
In the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are moving lower as investors shift their focus to Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. No change in policy is expected, but the meeting will mark Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed Chair. According to a Wall Street Journal article published this morning, Warsh has long argued that the Federal Reserve talks too much and should spend more time analyzing the economy and less time signaling its future intentions.
As a Fed governor during the 2008–09 financial crisis, Warsh witnessed firsthand the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet through large-scale bond purchases and the increased use of forward guidance under Ben Bernanke. Since leaving the Fed in 2011, he has criticized both policies, arguing that the central bank became overly reliant on bond buying and excessive communication. Investors will be watching closely for any indication that he intends to move the Fed toward a more traditional, less transparent approach to policymaking.
For now, however, Warsh’s ability to reshape the Fed’s message may be limited. Inflation remains elevated, and recent Middle East tensions had pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns about renewed price pressures. Yet one development may be working in his favor: crude oil has fallen sharply from its recent highs near $105 and is now trading closer to $80. That decline does not put rate cuts back on the table, but it does help ease concerns about additional inflation pressures and reduces the urgency for the Fed to consider raising rates sooner rather than later.
Other central bank decisions will announced by the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England.
Looking at the US yield curve:
- 2 year yield 4.051%, -3.5 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.173%, -3.7 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.455%, -249 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.955%, -1.7 basis points
In other markets,
- Gold is up $116 or 2.78% in reaction to the dollar and yields moving lower.
- Silver is up $2.90 or 4.26%.
- Bitcoin is also higher trading at $66,265 it closed near $63,500 on Friday
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of Middle East and GCC markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind The USD is lower to start the new week as Iran deal dominates and leads the markets. can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching energy links, regional policy, currency flows, fiscal themes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether local market reaction is confirmed by energy prices and broader risk appetite.
- How regional currencies, sovereign risk and equity benchmarks respond after the first headline.
- Any policy follow-up from government, central-bank or energy officials.
- Cross-market spillover into oil, gold, the U.S. dollar and regional banking sentiment.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from energy links, regional policy, currency flows, fiscal themes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For Middle East and GCC markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: The USD is lower to start the new week as Iran deal dominates and leads the markets. may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
