As a memorandum of understanding is said to be close but not done as Iran’s supreme leader Khomenei and Pres. Trump have not approved, the markets are still hopeful.
US stocks have moved higher led by the NASDAQ index which is up 0.52%. The S&P index is up 0.43%. The Dow industrial average is up seven points and also on pace for a record close for the day.
Crude oil is up about $0.62 at $89.40, but while off the high price of $92.52.
US yields have moved back into negative territory:
- 2 year yield -1 basis point of 4.022%.
- 5-year yield -2.1 basis points at 4.159%.
- 10 year yield -2.2 basis points at 4.459%
- 30 year yield -2.0 basis points at 4.990%
The benchmark levels of that need to be broken in and stay broken include 4.0% for the two year, 4.5% for the 10 year and 5.0% for the 30 year .
Looking at the USD, the greenback has moved sharply to the downside:
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved back above both the 200-hour moving average at 1.1623 and the 100-hour moving average at 1.1629, shifting the technical bias back to the upside. The break higher has helped push the pair back into a key swing area between 1.1655 and 1.1663 — a zone that previously acted as resistance.
If buyers can extend above 1.1663, the next upside target comes in at the 200-day moving average near 1.1681. Staying above the hourly moving averages keeps the buyers more firmly in control, while a move back below those levels would weaken the bullish momentum.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved lower and tested the rising 100-hour moving average at 159.19, with the session low reaching 159.19. Also in focus is the 200-hour moving average, currently at 159.09. Buyers leaned against that key support level on Tuesday, helping to keep the broader bullish bias intact.
For sellers to start gaining more control, the price needs to break below — and stay below — the 200-hour moving average. A sustained move under that level would shift the short-term bias more in favor of the downside and open the door toward the next support targets at 158.75 and 158.59.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD buyers have regained control after pushing the price back above the 200-day moving average at 1.3420 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.3433. The momentum has now carried the pair up to the 100-hour moving average at 1.3453 — the next key technical hurdle.
A move above the 100-hour moving average would increase the bullish bias further and have traders targeting the 100-day moving average at 1.3474. Earlier this week, buyers briefly pushed above that key daily moving average, but the breakout failed, leading to a rotation back below the major hourly and daily averages yesterday and earlier today.
Now, traders are trying to flip the bias back to the upside once again, with the cluster of moving averages serving as key barometers for the next move
USDCHF: The USDCHF is trying to navigate through a cluster of key moving averages after the rally stalled just short of the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high to the May low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.7901, and today’s high reached 0.7899 — just two pips shy of the key technical target.
The rejection from that retracement level has sent the pair back lower, with the price now falling below the 200-hour moving average at 0.7861 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7849. However, sellers have so far stalled just ahead of the critical 100-day moving average at 0.7836, with the session low reaching 0.7842.
If sellers are to take more control, they need to break below — and stay below — that 100-day moving average. Earlier this week, the pair dipped below the level, but sellers could not sustain the momentum. Buyers leaned against the MA on Tuesday, helping to base the pair and fuel the move higher yesterday and into early trading today. That makes the 100-day MA a key barometer for the next directional move.
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of global markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind USD races to the downside. What are the markets saying now technically? can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether price action confirms the headline after the first reaction has passed.
- How related markets respond, because isolated moves are easier to reverse.
- Any follow-up data or official comment that changes the original market assumption.
- Volatility and liquidity conditions, which should guide risk size before direction.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from liquidity, macro data, sentiment, positioning and cross-asset confirmation. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For global markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: USD races to the downside. What are the markets saying now technically? may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
