- Silver and Gold can’t sustain their previous momentum, seeing renewed bearish flows amid tensions resurfacing
- Their inverted correlation to Oil and the US Dollar remains strong, with the two bouncing back to start the week
- Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD (Silver) and XAU/USD (Gold)
Today, the Middle East conflict has entered yet another dangerous stage.
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Although this is the third week of the ceasefire, many now doubt it will hold. In the last 24 hours, Iran reportedly attacked several merchant ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; The conflict has also widened, with direct attacks on the United Arab Emirates and major incidents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
With these new tensions, the strong inverse relationship between precious metals, crude oil, and the US Dollar picks up again. Both the US Dollar and Oil prices have jumped at the start of the week, putting extra pressure on the metals market.
Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 4, 2026
Metals are once again trading more like risk-on assets. Unlike in the past, gold is not acting as a safe haven. Instead, as the conflict continues, the yellow metal along with its precious mates, have seen a steady decline throughout the war.
The asset class is falling sharply amid today’s worsening sentiment: Silver is down 5% on the session session, Platinum is now trading well below $2,000, and Copper prices have fallen far from their recent $6 highs.
Daily Metals Performance. Courtesy of Finviz – May 4, 2026
Are precious metals no longer seen as safe havens?
This ongoing war is serving as a crucial test of that historic Market assumption. However, to console aficionados of the alternative asset class, the ultimate flight-to-quality assets—government bonds (US Treasuries particularly)—are also getting heavily battered by these flows.
At the heart of these moves are worries about inflation.
High oil prices and supply chain problems are pushing interest rates higher for longer. While metals are falling faster than stocks right now, this sharp drop could trigger more trouble ahead for all financial markets.
Let’s explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch ahead.
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView
The ongoing rejection in Gold has been severe, with a clear downward channel forming throughout the past week.
Currently testing its $4,500 support, similar as last week lows after rejecting its 4H 50-period MA, bulls will have to show up to avoid an important support break.
- Breaking below the level opens the door to $4,400
- The 200-day MA comes next at $4,280
- Any continuation will retest the $4,100 War lows
- To regain a bullish momentum, the metal will need to rebound in the current support to break above the bear channel and 4H 50-period MA ($4,640)
Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):
Resistance Levels:
- $4,640 – 4,670 4H 50 & 200 MA & Bear Channel (Short-Term) bullish above
- $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
- $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
- $5,400 mini-resistance
Support Levels:
- December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)
- Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
- Main Channel Lows Support $4,100 (Long-term bearish below)
- Next Support $3,880 to $4,000
Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels
Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Silver is also forming a clear downtrend since reaching its top on April 16, officially breaking its $74-$75 pivot Zone and key Moving averages.
The momentum is decisively bearish for now, hence short-term traders will want to either enter on a retest of the $74 Moving average bands or through a sell stop below $72.
The next stop for the metal is at $70, with this level being a final test before at ~10% drop to $63-$64.
- The war lows would come next at $61
- To inverse the bearish momentum, bulls will want to see a daily close above $76
- A short-term bullish breakout confirms above $80
Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):
Resistance Levels:
- Pivot lows $74.50 – $75 (bullish above)
- Pivot highs $79 – $79.50 (4H 200-period MA – bullish above)
- $84 Major level
- Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
- $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
- Current Record $121.67
Support Levels:
- $70 – $72 Minor Support (recent bounce – Bearish below)
- December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
- $61.10 Past Session lows
- $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
- Silver’s 2011 All-time highs $49.81
Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!
Editorial note: This recovered market brief has been cleaned and reclassified by Next Move Markets for educational market intelligence. It is not investment advice.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
- How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
- Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
- ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
- How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
- Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
- ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
- How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
- Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
- ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of precious metals rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether real yields and the dollar move together or send conflicting signals for gold.
- How traders react around prior swing highs, lows and liquidity zones.
- Whether safe-haven flows are broad-based or limited to a short headline reaction.
- ETF flow, futures positioning and inflation data that could validate or weaken the move.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from real yields, dollar direction, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For precious metals, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Conflict Fears Tarnish Metals – Silver (XAG/USD) Breaks $75 & Gold (XAU/USD) Tests $4,500 may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
