Brent oil opened with a gap-lower and hit the lowest in more than two weeks on Monday ($96.88), driven by fresh wave of optimism about potential US-Iran peace deal, although key points of negotiations are still to be discussed.
Fresh weakness broke through initial supports, provided by triangle support line / 55DMA ($103.99/$102.73 respectively), dipped below psychological $100 level and penetrated ascending daily cloud (top of the cloud lays at $99.56) also denting Fibo support at $97.23 (61.8% of $86.08/$115.26 upleg).
Technical picture on daily chart weakened as the action continues to gain negative momentum and 10DMA crossed below 20DMA that signals increasing pressure at the downside.
Daily close below $100 (will be the first one in over a month) is needed to confirm negative signal and keep bears for attempts through next pivotal support at $96.09 (May 7 higher low), violation of which to unmask targets at $92.97 (Fibo 76.4%) and $90 (round figure).
Meanwhile, the action may take a breather above cracked $97.23 support and $96.09, due to oversold conditions.
Upticks (in persistent favorable fundamentals) should be limited and mark positioning for fresh push lower, with broken $100 and $100.67 (broken 50% retracement) acting as solid barriers which should ideally cap.
Only stronger bounce that would fill today’s gap and return into triangle, would sideline bears.
Res: 100.00; 100.67; 103.01; 104.64.
Sup: 97.23; 96.09; 94.22; 92.97.
