The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are leading the move lower in the US dollar today as improving risk sentiment weighs on the greenback. Reports suggesting that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding on a cease-fire have helped push crude oil back lower, with WTI now down around $0.35 to $88.32. Treasury yields are also moving lower, with the 10-year yield down about 3 basis points to 4.451%. Meanwhile, U.S. equities are benefiting from the improved tone, with the NASDAQ up 0.72% and the Russell 2000 gaining 0.75%.
Looking at the AUDUSD, the pair has now pushed back above both its 200-hour moving average at 0.71417 and its 100-hour moving average at 0.71508. The move higher has taken the price to a session high of 0.7169, with the pair currently trading near 0.7166. Earlier this week, the pair traded above those moving averages and reached highs near 0.7179 and 0.7182. Those levels are now the next upside targets for buyers ahead of a more important swing area between 0.7193 and 0.7200. Staying above the key moving averages keeps the buyers firmly in control in the short term.
For the NZDUSD, the pair moved back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday, but early Asian-Pacific trading saw a retest of those support levels. The low for the day reached 0.5865, right between the two moving averages at the time, before buyers stepped back in aggressively. Since then, the pair has surged to a high of 0.5935, testing the upper end of a swing area between 0.5918 and 0.59355. The battle now is whether buyers can push and sustain the price above 0.59355, which would open the door for a retest of the May highs between 0.5967 and 0.59899, or whether sellers lean against the resistance area and force the pair back below 0.5918, disappointing the late buyers in the process.
In the video above, I go through the technical levels and market dynamics driving both currency pairs in greater detail.
