In-brief analysis
July 29, 2026
Data source: Standard International Trade Classification data published by the U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Prices are adjusted for inflation.
The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell by 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Energy trade value is the total value of energy imports and exports between two countries and is driven by commodity volumes and prices. Most of the U.S.-Canada trade value is U.S. energy imports from Canada—$111 billion in 2025—rather than from U.S. energy exports to Canada, which totaled $26 billion last year. Crude oil accounts for the largest component of U.S.-Canada energy trade, making up 69% of the total value traded in 2025.
As of March 6, 2025, Canada’s energy exports to the United States are subject to a 10% tariff, although some crude oil volumes are potentially exempt from tariffs if they qualify for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement preference. More recent tariff actions announced by the White House exempt energy trade.
Despite the imposition of the 10% tariff last year, the United States remained the largest export destination for Canada’s crude oil given the existing pipeline infrastructure connecting the two markets. Relatively complex U.S. petroleum refineries tend to prefer heavy crude oils, such as those produced in Canada.
Crude oil. Brent crude oil prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in 2025, $11/b lower than in 2024. Lower crude oil prices in addition to lower trade volumes resulted in the value of crude oil trade between the United States and Canada averaging $94.7 billion, 16% less than in 2024.
Canada is a key source of U.S. crude oil imports, and it remained the primary source of U.S. crude oil imports in 2025. U.S. crude oil imports from Canada in 2025 averaged 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d), 4% less than in 2024, partly due to increased utilization in Canada of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which brings Canadian crude oil to the Pacific Coast for export to foreign markets. Canadian companies can export crude oil to markets in the U.S. West Coast region and, increasingly, to those in Asia.
U.S. crude oil exports to Canada are small by comparison, averaging 383,000 b/d in 2025, 2% less than in 2024. U.S. crude oil exports to Canada are typically low-density and low-sulfur crude oil grades shipped via pipeline to eastern Canada.
Petroleum products. Petroleum products trade between the United States and Canada increased by about 2% by volume in 2025 but decreased by about 4% by value, driven by lower fuel prices. Crude oil prices make up the largest component of gasoline and diesel fuel prices.
In 2025, the United States imported 583,000 b/d of petroleum products from Canada, a 2% decrease. Lower fuel prices and lower import volumes resulted in $16 billion of petroleum imports from Canada in 2025, 15% lower than in 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. petroleum product exports to Canada in 2025 averaged 504,000 b/d, 6% higher than in 2024. Similarly, the value of U.S. petroleum product exports to Canada in 2025 was 12% less than in 2024 at $13.4 billion.
Principal contributor: Sean Hill
Next Move Markets desk view
For active traders, this brief should be read through the lens of energy markets rather than as a standalone headline. The key question is whether the theme behind Crude Oil Price Declines Weigh on U.S. and Canadian Energy Trade Values can influence positioning beyond the first reaction. That means watching supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk together, not in isolation.
A richer trading read comes from separating the catalyst from confirmation. The catalyst explains why markets are paying attention; confirmation comes from price action, liquidity and cross-asset behavior after the headline is digested. If those signals do not align, traders should treat the move as fragile and keep risk tighter.
What traders should watch next
- Whether the headline changes physical supply expectations or only short-term sentiment.
- How Brent and WTI react around recent technical ranges after the first volatility spike.
- Inventory data, OPEC communication and shipping-route risk that can confirm the theme.
- Currency moves and global growth expectations that may offset energy-specific catalysts.
Risk context
This article is a market-intelligence brief, not a trade recommendation. Before acting on the theme, traders should define invalidation, position size and the time horizon of the setup. The same headline can support a short-term reaction and still fail as a multi-session trend if liquidity, policy expectations or broader sentiment move the other way.
Scenario map
The base case is that traders keep this theme on the radar while waiting for confirmation from supply headlines, inventory data, OPEC policy, transport routes and geopolitical risk. A stronger continuation scenario requires follow-through after the first reaction, preferably with related assets moving in the same direction. A failure scenario develops if the headline is quickly absorbed, volatility fades and price returns inside the previous range.
For energy markets, the most useful approach is to compare the article theme with live market behavior. If the market confirms the narrative, pullbacks can become more constructive. If the market rejects it, the headline becomes background noise rather than a trading driver.
Execution discipline
- Define the level first: traders should know where the idea is invalidated before thinking about upside or downside.
- Separate news from setup: Crude Oil Price Declines Weigh on U.S. and Canadian Energy Trade Values may explain attention, but entry quality still depends on timing, liquidity and risk/reward.
- Watch confirmation: a clean move usually appears across related markets, not only in one isolated instrument.
- Control exposure: if volatility expands, smaller position sizing can be more professional than chasing the headline.
Next Move Markets treats this kind of brief as a starting point for preparation: identify the driver, map the scenarios, then wait for the market to prove which path is actually being priced.
