The USDCAD is down modestly on the day, slipping -0.07% after an early push higher failed to gain traction above key resistance. The pair briefly moved above its 100-hour moving average and into a swing area between 1.3620 and 1.36305, but the lack of follow-through opened the door for sellers to reassert control into the North American session.
The price has since rotated back below that zone and is currently trading near 1.3613. Despite the downside bias, price action remains subdued, with a narrow 25-pip range on the day (1.3605 to 1.3630). That limited movement reflects a market still searching for conviction—but importantly, sellers are keeping a lid on rallies below the 1.3630 level, which tilts the bias modestly to the downside and keeps buyers on the defensive.
Looking lower, the next downside target comes in between 1.3593 and 1.3600. A break below that area would increase bearish momentum and open the door for a move toward 1.3549. Below that, traders will look to the February and March swing lows between 1.3522 and 1.3532, followed by the February 11 low at 1.3503 and the year-to-date low from January 30 at 1.3482.
For buyers to regain control, the price would need to move back above 1.36305 and then clear the 200-hour moving average at 1.36421. A sustained break above that zone would shift the bias, giving buyers more confidence while forcing sellers to reassess.
