The USDCHF extended to the downside today after finally breaking below the key 100-day moving average at 0.78393, a level that had helped hold support on Friday. Once below, downside momentum accelerated and pushed the pair down toward the May 14 swing low at 0.7807, where buyers stepped back in and stalled the fall.
The bounce from that support level has the pair moving back toward a key cluster of resistance defined by the old swing area at 0.78366 and the broken 100-day MA at 0.78393. That area is now a critical barometer for both buyers and sellers. If buyers can push the price back above those levels — and more importantly stay above — it would shift the bias back to the upside and have traders targeting the next resistance levels at the 200-hour moving average at 0.78547 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7866.
For sellers, the playbook is straightforward. Hold resistance against the swing area and 100-day MA and keep the price below. If they can do that, the break below the 100-day MA today would remain a bearish technical development with the 0.7807 low staying in focus.
