The USDCHF found support late last week after testing a key swing area floor between 0.7774 and 0.7782, a level that has held multiple times since April. Friday’s low at 0.77782 attracted buyers, sparking a rebound that carried into Monday.
That upside momentum extended through a nearby resistance zone between 0.78309 and 0.7840, but the move stalled just shy of the 100-hour moving average—a level that continues to define the near-term bias. In today’s Asian and European sessions, the pair made two separate attempts to break above that moving average, but both stalled right near the moving average level. That inability to gain traction above the MA gave sellers the green light to reassert controlr.
Selling pressure pushed the pair down to a session low of 0.7814, before a modest bounce back toward 0.7827. Despite the bounce, the technical tone remains tilted to the downside as long as price stays below the 100-hour MA.
From a trading perspective:
- Below the 100-hour MA: Sellers remain in control. A continued hold below keeps the focus on a rotation back toward the 0.7774–0.7782 support zone.
- Above the 100-hour MA: Buyers regain a foothold. A sustained break higher would target a confluence zone near 0.7853, where the 100-day and 200-hour moving averages converge.
- Break above 0.7853: Would open the door for further upside toward 0.7876.
Bottom line:
The 100-hour moving average is the key borderline. Sellers are leaning against it for now, and until buyers can break and hold above that level, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
